APPLYING TIME SERIES MODELS FOR PREDICTING THE RATE OF INFLUENZA FLU IN HUNG YEN PROVINCE

Luong Xuan Hong; Pham Thi Anh Huong; Nguyen Van Chien; Dam Quang Thinh; Thi-Thu-Huyen Tran; Nguyen Van Hau

Luong Xuan Hong Hung Yen University of Technology and Education
Pham Thi Anh Huong Hung Yen University of Technology and Education
Nguyen Van Chien Hanoi University of Science and Technology
Dam Quang Thinh Hung Yen University of Technology and Education
Thi-Thu-Huyen Tran Hung Yen University of Technology and Education
Nguyen Van Hau Hung Yen University of Technology and Education

Keywords: time series models, Auto regression model, moving average model, Integrated Autoregression model, influenza flu

Abstract

Hung Yen is a province located in the center of the Red River Delta, North Vietnam is also a province heavily affected by infectious diseases. In recent times, many scientists have studied and applied time series models to predict the rate and the number of infectious diseases, thereby helping the health-care organizations to prevent the spread of deadly infectious disease outbreaks (e.g. dengue, diarrhea, influenza, etc.). In this paper, we investigate and apply three time series models: Auto regression (AR), moving average (MA), and Integrated Autoregression model. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). Experiments show that the ARIMA model gives better results.

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